GAO Report Warns NOAA Satellite Cuts Could Leave a Weather Data Gap
Experts told CNN this week that cuts to NOAA’s next generation of weather satellites set American forecasting back nearly a decade. The Government Accountability Office report behind that headline is more specific than the headline, and it matters to anyone who relies on a severe-weather warning, including the federal employees who issue them.
What the GAO Report Says
The report is GAO-26-107739, a 49-page document dated September 16 and made public October 16. The “nearly a decade” characterization comes from the experts CNN quoted on October 19; the details below come from the GAO report.
The Lightning Mapper Is Gone From Every New Satellite
The lightning mapper is the instrument that sees severe storms many minutes before radar does. It is the kind of capability that buys extra minutes when a tornado warning goes out in the middle of the night. According to the report, it is gone from all four of the new satellites (see page 6 of the report for the lead-time discussion).
A Window With No Spare Satellite
The current spare satellite is projected to fail in October 2032, while the first new satellite is not operational until early 2033. That leaves a window of several months with no backup in orbit, so a single failure in that window would leave a hole in the nation’s weather data. NOAA had called this a top risk, closed it, and then reopened it, which the report describes on page 19, footnote 22.
The Same Imager That Launched in 2016
The first new satellite, expected in 2032, will fly the same imager design that launched in 2016 (page 15). That is the basis for the “decade” comparison. GAO’s overall verdict is that it is unclear whether the new satellites will improve, or even continue, what today’s satellites do.
The Tradeoff and What Comes Next
The question Shaun asks is a direct one: $6.6 billion in savings, or the lightning mapper and a backup satellite? This is not settled. NOAA owes Congress a baseline report by December 31.
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